Without any insane results, it’s hard for people to just trust everything I say on this blog of mine but I finally did it. I became a GPP champion this week except for the fact that despite leading the way with 30 seconds left to go, the contest ended with a six-way tie for first. Oh well!
After many weeks of discussing DFS with my friends and even people I have met through Reddit, it’s clear to me that I don’t approach this game the same way as most people. Whereas everyone is trying their best to predict what will actual happen, I honestly just care about ownership. Everyone, their mom, and their grandma thought McDavid would have a great night last night against the Leafs, but a lot of you who had the him failed to even cash because his line was very highly owned.
A lot of you will tell me that I was wrong to fade McDavid last night because he had a 5 point night but I guess a poker analogy would best explain my reasoning. McDavid = pocket aces while I have a crappy hand. Now, I know McDavid is a fave in the hand but when he hits, the prize pool is split with hundreds of people, but when my low owned line of Parise-Koivu-Coyle hits, maybe I take down the whole thing!
Ultimately, while others are regretting that they didn’t pick this guy or that guy after the results roll in, I have that reaction well before the night is over. I have that reaction when the ownership numbers appear and the actual result doesn’t really matter all that much, except for my wallet of course! I guess I wanted to say all this because it saddens to see some of you awesome people get so depressed about the results every night. If hockey was that predictable, the Vegas odds for any given game wouldn’t be so close to a coin flip, so take it easy guys!
My approach is not to hit every night. It’s when I do hit, I take down the whole show which makes up for all my misses and that’s why when I became a GPP champion this week, it was a relatively contrarian lineup. The way people felt about Crosby Wednesday was exactly like how they felt about McDavid last night. They said he was impossible to fade. Really?
Sidney Crosby was 49.6% owned and I had known he would be really high in ownership on a 3-game slate, so when choosing which goalie to play, I decided to mainly go with the goalie that Sidney Crosby was playing against because if he had a bad game, who was likely to benefit from that? That’s right, the King, Henrik Lundqvist.
The rest of my lineup is fairly self-explanatory for any of you who have been playing for a while. They’re just typical line stacks though I was asked why I had Red Wings and Karlsson in the same lineup. Don’t I want to stack the Red Wings so I collect all the points that they generate? Yes and no. One of my latest theories is there comes a point where you are actually limiting your upside by having too many players from the same team. Every goal produces an average of 1.68 assists, so the game basically has to be fairly high scoring for a four player stack to have a decent amount of points.
I explained in a recent post (Why Should We Stack) that the highest scoring possible lineup is likely one that is mostly unstacked and we can even compare my lineup to the best one possible that night:
We stack because it would take WAY too many tries to get to this one.
As always, good luck and happy tweaking!
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